Rumors about the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev. "He will be allowed to leave on takeoff"

The story of the illness of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev last week became, perhaps, the most discussed topic on the Web. The forecast for the imminent resignation of the head of the Cabinet was born at lightning speed, as, in fact, the protests, with the corresponding demand. But the popular activity did not end there either: a link to the computer game “Petition for Medvedev’s Resignation – 2017” began to spread through various forums. Who is longing for the departure of the prime minister and who is predicted for his place - in the material "FederalPress".

“Medvedev owes super popularity to Navalny, Putin and the flu”

The Russians learned about the illness of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev from President Vladimir Putin on March 14, during a meeting of the head of state with ministers. Putin's words that "Dmitry Anatolyevich was not saved" spread on the Web with lightning speed. On that day, Medvedev not only did not attend the meeting between the President and the Cabinet of Ministers, but also for the first time this year missed the visiting meeting of the United Russia faction, which discussed topical issues of the agro-industrial complex.

Dmitry Medvedev's illness, however, was short-lived - already on March 15 he appeared at the White House and even met with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan.

For Internet users, the return of the prime minister the day after the announcement of the illness was just another reason for discussion - the head of the Cabinet managed to cure the flu suspiciously quickly. Oil was added to the fire by a photo of coffeebarberry on Instagram, taken in Krasnaya Polyana allegedly on March 10, that is, before Medvedev's illness. Few people believed in this date. Reasonable questions that immediately arose among users: why did this picture not appear on the social network on the same day, but waited in the wings for almost a week, and how did the prime minister manage to overcome the flu in 3-4 days?

Thus, Dmitry Medvedev's illness and the fact that it was not even the prime minister's press secretary, but the country's president himself who publicly announced it, only intensified the talk of an impending resignation, which began after opposition leader Alexei Navalny published a film about Medvedev's property. Someone even joked: Navalny, Putin and the flu made Medvedev super popular.

This March is likely to be remembered by the Russian prime minister with a new wave of rumors and protests for his resignation. Suffice it to recall the events of March 6 in St. Petersburg, where about 70 people took part in the people's gathering, organized by the youth democratic movement "Spring". The action just became a response to the investigation of the Navalny Foundation.

Last weekend, rallies for the resignation of the government led by Dmitry Medvedev were held in Russian cities. In Birobidzhan, the communists accused Medvedev of causing "social ulcers", the collapse of housing and communal services and agriculture, industry and the transport system. In Ulyanovsk, the Communists also came to the rally, who demanded, in addition, the resignation of the president, but the slogans were not much different from those of their party colleagues from the Jewish Autonomous Region.

At various forums these days, a link to the computer game “Petition for the resignation of Medvedev 2017” began to spread. However, she did not arouse mass interest.

So wait for resignation?

The resignation of Dmitry Medvedev is demanded by his opponents almost exactly as much as he is at the head of the Cabinet. These demands result in protest rallies and all sorts of petitions. In September last year, FederalPress, within the framework of the special project “Wind of Change”, about another wave of popular discontent with the Prime Minister. Then, just a few days before the elections to the State Duma, experts were skeptical about the likelihood of Medvedev's resignation.

And today, despite the revealing publications of Alexei Navalny, experts basically adhere to the same opinion - nothing threatens Medvedev. “In late 2016 and early 2017, Dmitry Medvedev’s positions were strengthened,” comments a leading analyst at the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Mikhail Neizhmakov. – Yes, and information attacks are not carried out against a person who is about to leave his post. Therefore, the current prime minister has good chances to work in his current post at least until the eve of the presidential election.”

Medvedev's immediate future, according to Neizhmakov, depends on the strategic objectives that Vladimir Putin will set for himself in his new presidential term.

In addition, "the prime minister in the Russian political system has not been the main" lightning rod "for a long time (as is often the case in presidential republics, say, in France)," the expert noted. That is why "unpopular measures in public opinion are associated with specific ministers, and not with the head of government."

Director of the Institute of Political Sociology Vyacheslav Smirnov generally believes that "Medvedev will stay for a long time." “It is expedient or not expedient to change the prime minister before the presidential elections. And after the presidential elections, why change? The president has already received his 65-75 percent, and who will be the prime minister is no longer so important, ”the political scientist explains his position.

According to the director of the Center for the Development of Regional Policy Ilya Grashchenkov, "Medvedev may remain in office until such time as his departure becomes a necessary step to preserve Putin's own power." “He is a loyal comrade-in-arms of the president, he has proved his loyalty,” the expert explains. – He even proved his effectiveness, because under his leadership the United Russia party won the elections to the State Duma in 2016. He created his own powerful clan, which includes up to 30% of Russian governors. It influences the largest FIGs, such as Gazprom.

Considering all this, the political scientist Roman Kolesnikov believes that "the story of the absence of Dmitry Anatolyevich at two important meetings should not obscure the eyes with a veil of expectation of resignation."

Sobyanin is the first on the list

At the same time, experts do not undertake to completely deny the possibility of changing the prime minister. Today, as a rule, four names are circulating in the media: among the possible replacements for Dmitry Medvedev, they name the former head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, Deputy Prime Minister - Plenipotentiary of the President of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Many experts, in particular Mikhail Neizhmakov, are of the opinion that "the appointment of an open supporter of unpopular economic reforms, Alexei Kudrin, to the post of prime minister is unlikely." It is unlikely that this will happen even after the presidential elections.

Ilya Grashchenkov believes that "Alexey Kudrin, with all his desire to take this post, has only lost political weight in recent years." At the same time, the political scientist does not rule out that in a rather difficult situation in the country, "Medvedev may be allowed to leave "on the rise", while Kudrin will get a difficult task, the failure of which may be attributed to him." “In fact, Kudrin is not much different from Medvedev ideologically - it will only be a change in leadership, plus a tightening of the financial sector in terms of taxes and fees. But this is not [presidential adviser Sergei] Glazyev, and not an alternative concept of the development of the state, not the Juche idea,” Grashchenkov noted.

The option of promotion to the level of prime minister of the current head of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu, according to political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov, is not relevant. “Most likely, it could be considered provided that Russia finds itself in a state of isolation and a cold war with the West, when the government should be headed by a strong and authoritative leader. But in this case, Shoigu will become a direct competitor to Putin himself, I think both of them understand this,” Grashchenkov said.

However, the most likely candidate for the premiership is Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. This was reported to FederalPress by several political scientists. Roman Kolesnikov explains his position by the fact that Sobyanin is the most “experienced and successful business executive. “In addition, Sobyanin has significant hardware weight for the prime minister's appointment. In the latest ranking of the influence of governors, he confidently ranks first. He worked both as the head of the Presidential Administration and as the head of the government apparatus,” the expert recalled.

By the way, the option of appointing Sobyanin of the development of events is quite possible: the term of office of the capital’s mayor in 2018 just expires. And after the presidential election, Vladimir Putin may well offer him not to go to the mayoral elections, but to head the country's government. At the same time, according to political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov, Sobyanin's closeness to Medvedev "speaks of a possible continuity of the course."

Correspondent Maxim Shevchenko is convinced that the vast majority of Russians are currently in favor of Dmitry Medvedev's resignation.

Simply because this person justified that he would never act in the interests of the people.

In principle, they already knew about this, but the pension reform has already fixed this worldview, perhaps forever. The indicator of Medvedev's trust is 7%, which directly states: Medvedev is not trusted.

Will Medvedev resign?

Of course, Medvedev himself does not intend to resign, but it is worth noting at the same time that the media activity of this person has decreased significantly. The press secretary left him, and the newest press secretary proposed to publicly reduce media activity.

That is, of course, Dmitry Medvedev is not considered a spokesman for public interests, and therefore, in practice, he is only a man of destiny, who is almost entitled to determine the future of the Russian Federation.

Especially since Medvedev has no successes in this regard.

Not one. Of course, there are practically people ( a social being with reason and consciousness, as well as a subject of socio-historical activity and culture) want the government to be headed by someone who at least a little bit of course thinks about the development of the Russian Federation and about state interests.

Medvedev's results

If we want to realize the effectiveness of Medvedev, then we need to examine specifically the projects for which Medvedev was responsible. Let's start with the innovations.

This was the main motto during Medvedev's presidency. What are the results of the campaign for the development of innovations in the Russian Federation? And the results are the following: Skolkovo and Rosnano appeared. Two structures, which are completely unprofitable for the Russian Federation, where they send "exiled" government bureaucrats. For example, Chubais or Dvorkovich.

Of course, you can also remember the May decrees. Though the past, even today. Medvedev takes on "improving people's lives", but comes out just like Chernomyrdin: "wished for the best - it turned out as always."

Why do we need such a person at the head of the government, especially if he justified his personal inefficiency in practice? Logical conclusions lead to the fact that Medvedev's resignation- rational decision.

Alas, in this case it does not work, simply because the work is determined by the president's personal attitude towards this or that person, and not by the effectiveness of his work.

In our country, alas, ignorant people are often responsible for certain areas to which they have never had any relationship at all.

Medvedev - an expert on Roman law - is for the government of the Russian Federation, and the correspondent Rogozin is immediately for the entire galactic sphere.

One of the inevitable consequences of the presidential elections in 2018 and the entry of the elected president to a new term in May was the dissolution of the former composition of the Russian government. Such a requirement is contained in the constitution of the country, and the government could not but be dissolved. At the moment, the composition of the new government is being formed, and so far only those who will have to take top positions in the cabinet of ministers are known. In particular, it came as a surprise to some that Dmitry Medvedev, who has held this post since 2012, is again becoming prime minister. Although no special surprise, in fact, no. Why Dmitry Medvedev was not dismissed from the post of prime minister after the elections, as many Russians wanted, what are the possible reasons for such a decision by the president.

The decision on who becomes the prime minister in Russia is made by the president

The first and most important thing that we must clearly understand when discussing why Prime Minister Medvedev was not dismissed is that the decision on the candidacy of the head of government is made by the president of the country, and he has his own thoughts on this matter.

The moment President Putin decides whether to keep Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister, the last thing he thinks about is what ordinary Russians think about it.

Of course, we cannot get inside the president's head to find out all the reasons why Medvedev is the best option for him as prime minister. Nevertheless, some reasons are quite understandable, including those who personally know the president, have been watching him for a long time and imagine the course of his thoughts.

The first reason is that the prime minister can potentially become acting. president

According to the Russian constitution, it is the chairman of the government who is the second person in the state and the person who, in certain cases, can become acting head of state.

Recall that in the first months of 2000, Vladimir Putin himself was acting. president when his political father, Boris Yeltsin, resigned.

On the one hand, there seems to be no reason to think about such things as, for example, a serious illness, the need to transfer power during an operation, and so on. On the other hand, no one is immune from anything, including from some kind of emergency. And it is desirable for the incumbent president to be replaced in some extreme situation by a person whom he fully trusts.

The second reason is gratitude for 2008-2012.

No matter how they treat Medvedev's rule as president in 2008-2012. his detractors and even President Putin himself, it is important for the current head of state that Medvedev, having formally received a higher post, then remained completely loyal to him. And most importantly, in 2012, he unquestioningly handed over the top post back, burying his political ambitions. And he did this despite some support in the elite, part of which wanted a second term for Medvedev.

Of course, President Putin well remembers and appreciates the personal devotion shown by his old St. Petersburg comrade Medvedev.

And this reason is inextricably linked with the first - the second person in the country is not only the person whom the president trusts, but also the person who has been tested.

Reason three - Medvedev is an excellent lightning rod

Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister is the perfect lightning rod for popular dissatisfaction with the falling standard of living. While, in fact, the head of state is responsible for this, including doing a lot to ensure that the country falls under the sanctions of the developed countries of the world, and respect and trust in Russia in the world has sunk to its lowest point, inside the country he thanks to the same actions looks like a hero.

At the same time, people rarely associate the direct consequences of Vladimir Putin's heroic steps in the foreign arena with his name. The head of the Cabinet is to blame in their minds.

This is a rather simple move, but it has worked at all times and continues to work today. Medvedev's slightly ridiculous and slightly rustic image makes him an excellent performer in this role.

Reason Four - Medvedev must stay, because many demand his resignation

In the spring of 2017, Dmitry Medvedev was in the spotlight of many millions of Russians, and thousands of people demanded his resignation on the street, participating in rallies across the country. The reason for this was a large investigation, which was published at the beginning of the year by Alexei Navalny. In that investigation, the main critic of the Russian authorities accused Medvedev of large-scale corruption and grandiose bribes, which the head of the Cabinet allegedly received through shell funds.

It is known that President Putin fundamentally “does not succumb to pressure” and does nothing at someone's request. And accusations like those leveled against Medvedev strengthen the position of any official, whoever he may be. If there had been no Navalny investigation, Medvedev would have had to invent it himself to strengthen his position in the elite.

The fifth reason is that the real power in the country remains with the president.

And this is an important reason. From the point of view of what kind of policy is pursued by the Russian authorities inside the country and abroad, it does not matter who is the prime minister. Nothing will change from this.

Even if we forget that the ministers of power governments are directly subordinate to the Russian president, it is worth paying attention to the fact that economic meetings of government members are always held with the participation of Putin. The government in Russia is not an independent body, and the head of the cabinet is required, first of all, to be personally loyal to the president, and only then - professionalism.

The question of who will be the prime minister after the elections was not raised by anyone during the elections themselves. Three-quarters of the Russians who voted supported Vladimir Putin's candidacy without asking any questions about what he would do in the coming years. Thus, they supported in advance all his decisions, including those regarding personnel appointments. So, these people should not be surprised why Medvedev was not dismissed after the elections.

There is an opinion that the resignation of the government after the elections is a purely procedural phenomenon. Often Russians do not even notice it.

According to the law, the newly elected president presents the candidature of the chairman of the government to the State Duma within 2 weeks after taking office. After approval, the prime minister submits proposals to the head of state on the structure of federal executive bodies within a week, and also proposes candidates for the positions of deputy prime minister and federal ministers.

Political scientists believe that such a legislative loophole would be useful for the new term of Vladimir Putin, if he again becomes president in the elections in March. Therefore, changes in the government, in their opinion, are inevitable. However, their scale is still difficult to assess.

By the way, the same is said by sociologists who have long recorded negative attitudes towards the government in society, in particular towards the prime minister.

“Society needs change. A number of studies show that all the negativity that the inhabitants of Russia have about the situation inside the country and in domestic politics is often associated precisely with the figure of the prime minister. So from this point of view, the resignation of the government and the prime minister will make some sense,” said the sociologist. Alexey Novikov.

The main task of such changes is the fight against stagnation, including the rotation of Putin's "friends" under his patronage - the so-called "Politburo 2.0", the inter-clan struggle in which can lead to a serious crisis in the country.

“The results of this inter-clan struggle cannot be predicted, since they depend not only on the objective alignment of forces, but also on Putin’s personal attitude towards certain characters. On the other hand, he is interested both in maintaining the balance and in expanding Politburo 2.0. This will dictate possible changes in the government,” the political scientist noted. Sergey Komaritsyn.

Changes can be dictated by the course taken for rejuvenation. However, new "bright" politicians should not be expected, experts are sure. Most likely, these will be the same technocrats who unquestioningly carry out the orders of the president and easily fit into the vertical of power.

“The general course of personnel policy in the new government will most likely be the same as “young technocrats” will appear. At the same time, everyone does not understand very well who these "technocrats" are? There are some meanings that are very beneficial from the point of view of propaganda - focus on tasks, manufacturability, the absence of clan ties. But there was no exact definition from the authorities,” the political scientist said. Viktor Poturemsky.

For the Russians themselves, the change of government can carry a positive function and hope that the head of state will take a course not on foreign policy, but on domestic policy, sociologist Alexei Novikov believes.

As for Dmitry Medvedev specifically as prime minister, experts here are sure that no scandals around his personality will be able to influence Putin's decision. The President will be guided by personal disposition even to the detriment of the common cause, political scientists are sure.

“Medvedev is a very weak prime minister. But here the question is about obligations, a common biography and personal relationships. If Medvedev really wants to stay in the prime minister's chair, Putin will leave him, despite the fact that this harms the cause. In the demonstration - in the sense of early resignation before the elections - Putin is not very interested; She doesn't add much to him. But it can cause a little psychological trauma to Medvedev. Putin will not offend Medvedev,” said the political scientist Sergey Komaritsyn.

It cannot be ruled out that, in fact, the prime minister is a convenient “whipping boy” on whom all the popular negativity is poured. And Dmitry Medvedev, experts are sure, copes with this role very well. In this regard, it would be irrational to reform the government and subordinate it directly to the president, although there has been a lot of talk about this scenario lately.

“If the question is about whether he can do it technically, then yes, he probably can. If the question is about whether it is worth doing it, then most likely not. Because in this case, all responsibility for what is happening in the country will be transferred to him and, accordingly, all the negativity of the voters, which now concerns the person of Medvedev, will be transferred to the head of state, ”the sociologist emphasized. Alexey Novikov.

“Medvedev is extremely convenient as a lightning rod through which a protest against the federal government escapes. The model is established. There are no external reasons for its change yet. I think that it will remain after the elections. There are scenarios that could affect his departure following the results of the March elections, but so far these scenarios are unlikely,” the political scientist said. Viktor Poturemsky.

One of such possible scenarios in the media is the unification of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts. If the reform takes place, then it is likely that Medvedev will head the "super court". However, experts are sure that little will change for him in this case.

“The problem of status for Medvedev has only psychological significance. His real position under Putin will remain the same as it is now, regardless of the position, ”the political scientist noted. Sergey Komaritsyn.

Little will change in the post of prime minister. According to experts, another prime minister will not be much different from the previous one.

Thus, it is unlikely that a woman will become the prime minister, despite the fact that the speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matviyenko and the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina are increasingly appearing in the federal media in connection with this topic.

It should not be expected that a person with a bright political coloring will come to the Russian government. According to Krasnoyarsk political scientists, this can happen only in one case.

“For 18 years we had “technical” premieres (during the “tandem” period – a “technical” president). Why should this change? When Putin starts thinking about a successor, then a person with different characteristics will appear,” the political scientist argues. Sergey Komaritsyn.

If, for various reasons, we are still talking about replacing Medvedev, then his position could well be taken by a politician from Krasnoyarsk.

“Of the current government, the most prepared for such a role is our fellow countryman Alexander Novak. He has all the prerequisites for this - a biography, work at the level of a large corporation, region, federal ministries, experience, knowledge, abilities, international fame, the magnitude of the current tasks, closeness, and - which is very important - in his current capacity he is Putin's undisputed nominee." , the political scientist suggested Sergey Komaritsyn.

There may also be changes in the ruling United Russia party. It is already known that it will be rebranded. It is possible that management can also change. The need for these changes was loudly declared by Putin's self-nomination in the elections.

“If we understand this statement in terms of public political communication, then it means, in essence, a simple thing: United Russia does not provide the incumbent with a significant advantage in the elections. Actually, everything that follows after this is rebranding. You can try to follow the logic further - this, in turn, may mean that the party, under the existing leadership, does not solve the tasks assigned to it, ”said the sociologist Alexey Novikov.

However, according to experts, not only United Russia, but the entire party system of the country needs such a rebranding.

“What is happening now in the presidential elections shows a deep crisis in which literally all political parties find themselves. We built and built the party system, developed it in order to get a shortage of party candidates, replacements, non-participation in the main elections of the country. Plus Putin's self-nomination. The need for reforms of the party system and rebranding of parties is overripe and inevitable,” the political scientist said. Viktor Poturemsky.

Obviously, there is no need to wait for a "reset" of power after the elections: rather, it will be re-elections. But it is also obvious, experts say, that first of all the old new president will have to figure out what internal political tasks the government will solve and with what help. However, we can safely say that after the elections the dynamics of political and economic events in the country will increase significantly.

Photo: Aleksander Khitrov, Dmitry Medvedev, Reuters, Dmitry Koshcheev, Kremlin

A series of polls in the capital showed that Muscovites do not support Prime Minister Medvedev, they believe that it is time for him to leave, but they do not believe that the “sleeping prime minister” will be dismissed.

Dmitry Medvedev became the most discussed Russian politician of the last month. First, it was dismantled for parts in an anti-corruption investigation, then it did not appear at a meeting between the president and the government on March 14. Then Vladimir Putin explained the absence of Medvedev with the flu, and on March 23, Dmitry Anatolyevich himself, at a meeting with entrepreneurs, suddenly denied his illness, stating: “And I didn't get sick." . To check how all these events influenced the attitude of the population towards the second person in the state, activists conducted a series of surveys on the streets of Moscow and on the Internet.

Waiting for resignation

The poll showed that 88% of readers do not support the activities of the prime minister and insist on his resignation. Most likely, such a high percentage is associated not only with the inefficient activities of Medvedev and the government, but also with the previously publishedluxury real estate investigation , which through the mediation of various funds belongs to Dmitry Medvedev.

There will be no resignation

But one should not hope for resignation - such a conclusion can be drawn from the resultsanother poll .

Only 40% of respondents are sure that Dmitry Medvedev will be "asked" to vacate his chair in the near future. The majority (54%) are convinced that the prime minister will remain in his place.

Citizens are afraid to openly criticize Prime Minister Medvedev

Activists took to the streets of Moscow to hear the opinions of ordinary people. Those who are ready to openly speak out for the resignation of the prime minister turned out to be 2 times less.

People are outraged by the irresponsibility and lack of initiative of the second person of the state.

“Medvedev talks a lot, but doesn't do it. At his level, "Vova" seems completely different - a cut above. Therefore, I am for the resignation of Medvedev, ” the 48-year-old worker impulsively shared his opinion George. “I am a working pensioner, and Medvedev did not index my pension,” grey-haired indignant Vitaly Alexandrovich. "Medvedev is primarily responsible for the economic crisis,"- turning around, the girl throws the phrase Hope.

38-year-old Muscovite Elena believes that Medved's main weak position is that he will never be perceived as an independent politician. “He is a puppet figure and someone is sitting and directing behind his back. Therefore, Medvedev takes the place that a more enterprising and active person could take, ”- shared her opinion Elena.

Let the swamp, but its own

Often, Muscovites' desire to maintain the current status quo is simply the fear of change or the belief that nothing will change, no matter who takes Medvedev's place.

“I’m afraid of change,” one of the Muscovites expressed her phobia. “It will still be the same. Then we all need to change. It is pointless to change Medvedev alone, ”an aged woman declares unexpectedly and revolutionary, but in a calm tone. “Better not! In our lifetime, we have seen many, each sweeping in his own way, ”says another opponent of the resignation, the janitor Maria Sergeevna.

The investigation stirred up society

The film about the prime minister's corrupt smuggling undermined Medvedev's image, primarily in the eyes of the "liberal public", showing that the prime minister is not as pure as many people thought he was. At the same time, the concept"general public" is rather arbitrary, since the film was watched by only 10 million people, which is not much on a national scale.

The expert does not expect Medvedev's resignation, because this is only the decision of Vladimir Putin, "and Putin never makes a decision under someone's pressure."

Earlier, public activists and politicians spoke out for conducting an investigation into the traces of the data collected by the FBK. so dDeputy of the State Duma from the Communist Party Valery Rashkin sent requestChairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation Alexander Bastrykin, Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation Yuri Chaika, the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB with a demand to verify information about the real estate of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The parliamentarian announced this in his